Aug 28, 2019 The recent lucky Las Vegas parlay bet in Las Vegas isn’t the only time that a bettor has cashed out wagering on the MLB. Just a few years ago, a baseball fan bet the under on four MLB games with a $500 parlay. Incredibly, the bets were successful, earning the gambler $115,971. You don’t have to be in Las Vegas to make parlay bets right now. A parlay bet is a common way for sports bettors to increase their odds and payoffs. Instead of making multiple, single bets, a parlay bet combines 2 or more bets into one bet. Each bet within the parlay must win in order for the parlay to win. If any bet within the parlay loses, the bet loses. The more teams put into a parlay bet, the higher.
However, the football parlay odds for the entire bet would be +600 (6-1) since you have a 50-50 chance of winning each bet (3 bets x 2 = 6). If you bet $100 on the entire parlay bet, you’d get a parlay payout of $700 – your original $100 plus your winnings of $600. One superbowl we stayed at the mirage we found a 300 dollar 2 team parlay ticket on the floor that WON $$$$ and while not a parlay i just finished tied for 4th in the cannery fantasy football contest:).
Super Bowl 55 Parlay Analysis
There was plenty of traction on this piece a year ago, and while the selection (Kansas City and Over) ended up landing a couple of points short. Didn't discourage me from taking another crack at it this year, as we've got the Kansas City Chiefs involved once again.
Last year's Favorite-Under result marked the 12th time that correlation has landed for a Super Bowl, as all the rest of the history hasn't changed from last year's numbers.
Super Bowl Over-Under Correlated Parlay Results
Favorite-Over: 15 times
Favorite-Under: 12 times
Underdog-Over: 10 times
Underdog-Under: 13 times
That's the good news on my end as this year's entry can be much shorter, as jumping right past the historical part of things and down to the individual results by both franchises in the 2020 season.
2020 Season Breakdown
Kansas City ATS Win-Over: 4 times
Kansas City ATS Win-Under: 4 times
Kansas City ATS Loss-Over: 4 times
Kansas City ATS Loss-Under: 6 times
Tampa Bay ATS Win-Over: 5 times
Tampa Bay ATS Win-Under: 6 times
Tampa Bay ATS Loss-Over: 6 times
Tampa Bay ATS Loss-Under: 2 times
Depending on a couple of numbers with Kansas City spreads and totals – most notably the Chiefs/Saints game which is graded at -2.5 or -3 out there – there may be a push or two in KC's category, but nothing egregious in that these things results should always be treated as support, not gospel.
However you look at it though, there does seem to be two stronger correlated results at play for this game, depending on who you like to win the game.
Super Bowl 55 - Most Viewed Stories
Remember, in the previous 13 Super Bowls that were actually regular season rematches, the point-spread hasn't mattered once (13-0 or 12-0-1 ATS for eventual winner depending on if you're using -6.5 or -7 for the 1999 St Louis Rams), so even flipping the ATS side out for a ML correlated parlay is an option this year, if it's available to you.
But let's walk through each potential option here for the 37 total games these two teams have played, even with one of those being a head-to-head outcome that ended up going Underdog-Under in that 27-24 Kansas City win, as Tampa covered the +3.5 through the backdoor, and the 'under' never really approached sweat territory.
That's probably a good place to start.
Option #1: Underdog-Under (Tampa Bay +3 - Under 56)
This would be the clear cut side for those bettors that are favoring quarterback Tom Brady and the Buccaneers this week, as combining those specific results for the two respective teams (TB ATS win-under= KC ATS loss-under) comes up with the largest total of any option: 12.
The majority of 'under' tickets that cashed in Chiefs games this year came when KC failed to cover the spread, and the question of whether or not some of that has to do with the Chiefs “letting up” and letting all those opponents through the backdoor for all those weeks in a row has to at least be considered when looking at those results.
But combined with the slight edge Tampa had to the 'under' in their ATS wins (6 times), and this being the exact result we saw in the first meeting, there is plenty to like here.
Any Tampa SU victory is probably going to come on the backs of some strong defensive play by the Bucs, in whatever fashion that arrives. Whether it's through turnovers, or 3rd down sacks forcing punts etc, no matter how an 'under' bettor wants to get there with even an individual 'under' bet, a strong day by Tampa's defense is probably needed.
Now expecting the exact same ATS and total result in a rematch can be tough to be on board with, which is something I'd definitely have trouble with here, and it's not like the Bucs couldn't go out and win a high scoring game in this Super Bowl.
Tampa's scored 30 or more in all three of its playoff wins and in six straight games overall. They've only played a total of seven games since losing to Kansas City earlier in the year, so it's almost like Brady and Tampa knew they'd have to kick offensive production into high gear if to get here and possibly get another shot at Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Both are right in front of Tampa now, and with how many points their offense has put up in those past six games (35.6 points per game) has to bring pause to any 'under' look as well.
Option #2: Underdog-Over (Tampa Bay +3 - Over 56)
Parlay Payouts In Vegas
All those points Tampa's been putting up is part of what 'over' bettors are leaning on for this game, and as a combined number from both teams this year, that option comes in 3rd place with 9 total occurrences.
This would be the option most who like Tampa to win the game would land on I believe, simply because of the general consensus out there that the only way to beat Mahomes and the Chiefs is to outscore them in a shootout. It's how the Raiders did it earlier this year (40-32) and even KC's most recent two losses a year ago followed a similar script.
Tampa's had a few solid wins of this nature already this year, including out scoring that same Raiders (45-20), in the Raiders very next game following that win over the Chiefs. Talk about another thing falling into place for Brady and the Bucs this year, as they even catch non-conference foes in huge letdown spots after big wins like that.
The most notable Tampa win that fell in this category though was beating Green Bay in the NFC Championship, although three 2nd half interceptions from Brady and some questionable decision making by the Packers helped that result get to the finish line too.
But sitting in third out of four potential options in the tallies for these teams this year, and the general consensus being any upset win for the Bucs is likely going to have to come in a high-scoring game, not sure I could fully get behind this option at all.
It could easily happen, but definitely wouldn't be the first choice.
Option #3: Favorite-Under (Kansas City -3 - Under 56)
A Tampa-Over correlated parlay might not be my first choice, but I do know that my last choice would probably have to be this one and the history supports it.
The combined total of this result is the lowest of any four options (6), and it would also mean that one thing would have to happen that I'd have a hard time getting behind; the Chiefs defense completely keeping Tom Brady and the offense in check.
Never mind the notion that Tampa will benefit from the possibility of more flags being thrown on their opponent, or even the six straight games of scoring 30+ for the Bucs offense. Both of which are valid points to stay away from this kind of correlated play.
But this is yet another high stakes matchup throughout the careers of QB Tom Brady and KC Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, and Brady's too much of Spagnuolo's schemes/defenses not to be well prepared for this game.
Spagnuolo was a defensive coach on Andy Reid's staff in Philadelphia in the early 2000's when the Eagles were making all those NFC title games, only getting to the Super Bowl once and losing to Tom Brady.
Spagnuolo then moved on to become the defensive coordinator for the New York Giants in 2007, learning from his mistakes in that NE/Philly 2004 Super Bowl as a defensive assistant to become the architect who ended Brady and New England's perfect season.
There have been a few other stops along the way for these two, but most recently it's been these battles these past two years with Brady vs KC, as Spagnuolo became the DC there in 2019.
I know that if I was Brady in that historical timeline, I'd never forget about the guy who schemed up the plan to prevent me from making history like being the 2nd team ever to have a perfect season.
And outside of a slow 1st half in the regular season meeting this year, Brady's offenses haven't had a problem scoring on Spagnuolo's defenses for the most part since that 2007 Super Bowl. At least not when Brady's had the caliber of weapons that he has at his disposal this year.
Brady's seen it all from this guy from a scheme perspective, and if he and Tampa execute correctly and efficiently, then, backing this correlated side is rather hard to get behind.
Tampa's going to get their points in my opinion, and for this Favorite-Under correlation to hit, both defenses are going to need to play lights out and hold down both of these QB's. Not something I see happening too often either.
Option #4: Favorite-Over (Kansas City -3 and Over 56)
The other half of any locked in 'over' belief here comes in as what had the 2nd best tally of the bunch (10) for both teams this year, as KC split 4-4 O/U in games that they covered the number, but games that Tampa failed to cash an ATS ticket, the 'over' connected in six of eight tries.
Parlay Odds In Vegas
Leaning on that (75%) result isn't going to be hard for most to do given it means cheering for plenty of points from Mahomes and company, and with it being the best correlated result in Super Bowl history over the years still (15 times), the more support the better.
But while public percentages and that type of handicapping approach aren't nearly as useful for Super Bowl betting, the idea that this option feels like the “squarest of the bunch” doesn't particularly sit right.
I think given that the majority of those 10 combined results for this approach came in higher scoring games that turned out to be Tampa Bay ATS losses, maybe going the KC team total 'over' route may be the better option to sharpen those edges around that square, although you wouldn't be able to parlay the two together in all likelihood.
Couldn't fault anyone for going with this option with all things considered, it's just not the one for me.
Super Bowl 55 Parlay Prediction: Tampa Bay-Under
Vegas Football Parlay Cards
You may have heard the term “parlay” in reference to someone combining one asset with another to achieve success. “I bought a new propane grill, and combined with my shopping skills I parlayed that into a great family cookout.”
At the casino or on a sports book, to parlay means something similar. Easily the most popular of all exotic wagers in sports betting, a parlay (or “combo”) is a collection of 2 or more sides or totals that you place a wager on and all of them must win in order for you to cash in.
MLB, NFL and NBA Parlay Rules
Most bettors love the idea of having a chance at a big payoff from a small wager. But parlays are hard to win, and come with a strict set of rules. Let’s look at some of the ins and outs.
Bookies offer this category of wager to lure the gambler into a tough situation. For instance, on a 4-team parlay, going 3-1 is no different than going 0-4. You lose in either case. However, if you’d placed 4 individual bets and won 3 while losing 1, you would make a decent chunk of change. But you would have saved yourself a lot of money by betting the combo instead of placing 4 individual bets if you went 0-4.
“Correlated” outcomes are strictly against the rules, which means you cannot benefit from results that are related to one another. For instance, a finesse passing team might be pitted against a strong defensive unit in the Super Bowl. If you pick the latter squad, you cannot place a combo bet on the “under,” since that outcome is more likely to occur if the strong defense controls the contest.
Below is a table that lists the chances of hitting a combo if all wagers are “pick’em,” or evenly-matched “coin flip” scenarios – what sports books give you for each ratio, and the chance of a winner if you hit 55%. Obviously, if you’re a 55% handicapper, then there are good deals in the offing. This table shows the odds for 2-team combos all the way up to 11 teams.
| # of Teams | Your chances at 50% | Payout in Vegas | Your chances at 55% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 2.3/1 |
| 3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 5.0/1 |
| 4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 9.9/1 |
| 5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 18.9/1 |
| 6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.1/1 |
| 7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 64.7/1 |
| 8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 118.4/1 |
| 9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 216.1/1 |
| 10 | 1,023/1 | 700/1 | 393.8/1 |
| 11 | 2,047/1 | 1,200/1 | 716.8/1 |
As you can see, for the normal bettor who only hits on 50% of their wagers, trying for a 4-0 (or 3-0, or 2-0) record on the same day is a bad idea. It gets worse the more wagers you add. A 2-teamer isn’t terrible because you expect to hit 1 out of each 3 you bet, and you get rewarded 2.6 to 1. A 3-teamer isn’t that bad either because your expected chances are 7-1, while you get paid 6-1.
Avoiding “Sucker” Bets On Sports Book Parlays
Where you really see the biggest sucker bets are the 4-team combos. These wagers only work 1 out of every 15 times, yet you only get paid 10-1. Picking 8 winners and 0 losers only scores a hit once in every 255 times, but you only get paid 150-1 if successful. The 11-team parlay hits 1 out of every 2,047 times, and the payout is based on only just over 50% of that ratio.
Most of the general betting public doesn’t realize that 55% is an excellent winning percentage when it comes to sports betting. But the table also illustrates that if you pick 55% victorious teams/athletes, then every single combo listed is a profitable wager over the long term. The chances of hitting an 11-teamer drop from 2,047-1 to 716.8-1 when you pick 55%. Considering you get paid out 1,200-1, it actually isn’t a bad deal for the 55% handicappers.
The Lines Don’t Always Favor Betting Parlays
In conclusion, I almost never recommend betting parlays for newer cash players. There are times when I’ll put out a 2-team combo on a football game if 2 favorites are being under-valued, but only a of couple times a year. Your best move is to stick to straight bets in football and basketball with the point spreads and totals.
Sometimes, conference vs conference match-ups are a good opportunity for a successful combo wager if 1 of the 2 conferences is under-valued. For instance, ACC football went 4-0 vs the SEC on a Saturday in 2014 – nobody expected that except a few savvy gamblers. Georgia Tech over Georgia was just one of the upsets that took place on that November day as bookies lost out to the ever-popular SEC hype train driving the lines. Another opportunity for this kind of combo bet occurs during early-season conference vs conference “challenge” tourneys in college basketball.
I know it’s tempting to try and strike it rich on a big “trifecta,” but the chances are less in your favor as the number of picks goes up. So have fun, but proceed with caution!
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