It comes down to one game, the matchup between the Chiefs and Bucs as the NFL gets set to crown the champion of the 2020-21 NFL season. Will it be a repeat for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? Or will it be an incredible 7th Super Bowl win for Tom Brady and a second for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers franchise?
The anticipation is palpable…
But in the end, the way to make money with moneyline betting is simply to wager only on bets that offer good value. With time, practice, and experience, you’ll come to understand what makes a good value bet, and moneyline bets will become one of the best arrows in your quiver as a profitable NFL gambler. Summary: NFL Moneyline Betting Strategy.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- For college basketball money line odds, it’s a simple math formula that’s based on $100 wagers. Duke -200 (Bet $100 to win $50) North Carolina +170 (Bet $100 to win $170) In the above example, Duke is the favorite (-) while North Carolina is the underdog. If a bettor wanted to back Duke, who is expected to win, they would only win $50 on a.
- Understanding The Moneyline Odds In The NBA. Los Angeles Lakers +200. Miami Heat -200. Here in this moneyline example for the NBA, the Lakers are matching up with the Heat. Miami has been set in the role of the betting favorite, going off at -200 on the betting line. As such, a $2 wager is needed to profit $1.
Sunday, February 07, 2021 – 06:30 PM EST at Raymond James Stadium
Before turning to the pressing business of predicting the winner of SBLV, let’s just take a moment to savour the fact that the league has actually reached this point at all. With nary a hiccup too, mind you. When the season got underway back in September in the midst of a global pandemic that disrupted training camps, preseason games, and all manner of team interaction, understandably there was an air of cautious optimism. The NFL was getting underway, but no guarantees could be given that the regular season would be completed in its entirety, never mind contemplating the playoffs and Super Bowl 55 going to plan.
Fast forward through five months of rip-roaring action, weeks of scintillating football games being played (in most cases) to largely empty stadiums around the country and… amazingly, delightfully, ecstatically…. the league has arrived to destination Super Bowl 55 in Tampa, Florida. Like a Hollywood movie, the protagonists couldn’t have been any better than had the league handpicked them. A Super Bowl billing between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady is a quarterback battle for the ages – one that if it lives up to the hype and buzz is sure to be a right cracker and – dare it be said – a total tossup for NFL picks.
That’s not how sportsbooks are calling it though, as the Kansas City Chiefs emerge as the firm road faves to win in straight up betting markets. Depending on your choice betting site, the Chiefs are currently trading anywhere between -165 to -170 to lift the Lombardy Trophy. On the flipside, the Buccaneers are tipped as the considerable home underdogs priced anywhere between +145 and +150 to pull off the upset.
Contrary to this market stance, the betting is split down the middle with action coming down the wire on both sides of the coin in equal measure. At the time of writing (Tuesday, February 2,), the Chiefs and Bucs have 50% of the tickets apiece. If that’s not an indication that the public at least considers this game to be a coin-flip, what is?
Are the Bucs Underrated at the Expense of the Chiefs?
Without a doubt, the Chiefs are the team to beat going into Super Bowl LV. They’re a well-oiled machine that has made a habit of winning since Patrick Mahomes took over the reins from Alex Smith in 2018. His first two years were a magic carpet ride with first an AFC Championship appearance in 2018 and then winning SBLIV a year later. What Mahomes accomplished in his short career is certainly impossible to overlook, and that very fact is partly why the Chiefs are widely expected to come up trumps on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium.
Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady have split their four career meetings evenly, 2-2 SU, but Patrick Mahomes owns the “W” in the last two. Mahomes beat Tom Brady in his last season with the Patriots during the regular season, and he beat Brady in his first season with the Bucs during the regular season 27-24 at Raymond James Stadium. However, it’s worth pointing out one interesting trend here: the team that has won in the regular season is 6-7 SU in a Super Bowl rematch.
Ever since Tom Brady made the move out of New England and signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, betting sites elevated Tampa Bay’s odds in Super Bowl 55 betting markets, moving them into top contention – a position that was as foreign as winning itself was. In 2019, Tampa Bay finished 7-9 SU in Bruce Arians first season with the organization. They were 5-11 the two years prior. Heck, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ combined record is under .500. over the last decade in the NFL. But lo and behold, they’re Super Bowl bound in 2020, and there’s no mystery why that’s the case. Two words: Tom Brady.
Bruce Arians himself acknowledged that it took “one man to turn around the organization overnight from the league’s punching bag to a Super Bowl contender. The remarkable turnaround is the single most underrated achievement by the current Super Bowl betting market as it were. Not even Joe Montana did what Tom Brady has done in his second act.
Brady’s achievement is made all the more splendid, inspirational, courageous, breath-taking…there’s no end to the hyperbole one could trot out on this occasion… for the simple fact that he, at 43 years of age, defied his critics and naysayers that were all too eager to write him off in his new adventure. Even suggesting it would be impossible for Brady to enjoy a fraction of the success he had with the New England Patriots, as if he were half the man without Bill Belichick at his side.
Tale told, Brady put paid on his critics and turned preconceived notions upside down by leading the Buccaneers to Super Bowl 55. If he can go one better and beat the highly-fancied Kansas City Chiefs, it would be an amazing victory. Perhaps, his greatest Super Bowl victory of all.
NFL Betting Predictions and Picks
Across the board, sports media writers, pundits, armchair critics appear to be cornering their Super Bowl pick with the Kansas City Chiefs. While it’s understandable why many would lean towards the Chiefs, it’s surprising to discover that finding a pick that serves up the Buccaneers to upset the Chiefs is like looking for a needle in the haystack. In the interest of symmetry and... to play a bit of devil’s advocate – maybe it’s time an NFL betting article goes boldly where few have gone before…
Betting the Chiefs is a sound bet, one that is impossible to argue with it at all. Bettors could do no worse than bet the Chiefs to win. However, Tom Brady has won more championship titles in his career than any other player or team in the league. In one year – a pandemic induced year, mind you – he singlehandedly turned around a franchise and led it to SBLV. That’s just bonkers. If that’s not an indication that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are dangerous floaters in this game, what is?
Put it simply, if the team is buying what Tom Brady is selling, shouldn’t everyone?
NFL Pick:Buccaneers +150 with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.
Related Articles
Moneyline betting is the simplest form of betting on sports. Whether you’re new to gambling or a seasoned bettor, you’ve likely already placed a moneyline bet at some point in your life.
Moneyline bettors don’t care about how many points that games are won by or how many total points are scored. In most sports, one team wins and one team loses. Your job in moneyline betting is to pick the winner of the game, match, race or event. If they win, you win. Pretty simple.
Think of it as the traditional bets you would make with your buddies whether you’re debating team supremacy from the bar, in the office or in the group chat.
For example, an overconfident peer claims their squad is the best in the land. It just so happens that team plays your team this weekend. (If this scenario doesn’t lead to a wager of some sort, you need to find more entertaining people to surround yourself with.) You decide to offer up a bet on the winner of the matchup. Loser has to offer up cash, buy lunch or humiliate themselves in some fashion.
That’s moneyline betting, at its simplest form — picking an outright winner without the point spread involved is moneyline betting.
See All Results For This Question
It’s a little more complicated than that, but not much.
Let’s learn more about it.
How to Identify the Moneyline
Where can you find the moneyline at the sportsbook or online? In most sports, three major categories are listed for you to place a wager on. On the left side, it will typically show the point spread of the game, while the over/under point total resides on the far right.
The moneyline numbers sit in the middle. Usually the team listed with a negative number is the favorite, while the underdog will likely have a positive number. These numbers will likely fluctuate a bit leading up to the start of the event.
Betting the Moneyline Favorite
If you’re new to the growing sports industry, you’re probably thinking this sports betting thing is pretty easy. Just pick a winner and I get paid? Why not bet every favorite, get rich and quit my job?
If only it were that easy.
Put simply, you’re betting a lot to win a little if you decide to go with this strategy. It seems like a sure thing a particular team will win, but upsets happen. That’s why we watch games. It would be boring if the favorites always won.
Is it worth the risk of financial loss when the payout would be so low? That’s the balancing act sports bettors face when considering picking the favorite straight up in a moneyline play.
Betting the Moneyline Underdog
On the other hand, if you decide to bet the underdog, you have a chance to win a lot by betting a little, which makes for a thrilling bet placement.
Is there a big and unexpected outcome you think could shock the sports world? Bet the underdog on the moneyline, win big and brag to your friends.
Best Moneyline Bets College Basketball
Or, if you see a slight underdog you feel has a decent shot at not only covering the spread but winning, put some action on the moneyline to increase your payout.
Some bettors will bet the underdog on the moneyline as well as picking the team to cover the spread in an effort to protect themselves in case one bet hits and not the other.
Moneyline Parlays
One sports betting strategy some bettors go with is parlaying moneyline plays. If you are extremely confident in two or more moneyline outcomes, combine them into your wager and cash your ticket with a higher payout if all outcomes go your way. Keep in mind if just one team loses, you lose the bet.
On the flip side, if you start betting multiple underdogs on the moneyline and are successful, the little amount you put on the line could turn into a big-time payday.
Moneyline Examples
Now that you have the basics, let’s dive in to some real-life examples.
How to bet the moneyline in NFL
Example 1
Let’s take the biggest game of last season: Super Bowl 54 between the KansasCityChiefs and the SanFrancisco49ers.
According to the WestGate SuperBook in LasVegas, the Chiefs came into the game as slight favorites and a -130 listing on the moneyline. As small underdogs, the 49ers entered the game with a +110 moneyline.
You can tell sportsbooks anticipated a close game due to both numbers being very close to 100 either way.
To make this easier to calculate in your head, you can think of it this way. If you bet $130 on the favored Chiefs at -130, you will end up with $100. If you bet $100 on the underdog 49ers at +110, you will wind up with $110.
You already know the Chiefs will have a smaller payout than the 49ers, but by how much? Here are the calculations.
- $100 on the Chiefs: $76.92 payout
- $100 on the 49ers: $110 payout
The Chiefs ultimately won the Super Bowl, so their moneyline bettors left the NFL season happy with a decent payout.
Example 2
So we covered the Super Bowl 54, which was expected to be a close game at the end. But what about an expected blowout?
Let’s take a look at week 2 in the 2019 NFL season in a matchup between the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins. The Patriots had Super Bowl aspirations, while the Dolphins had No. 1 overall draft pick aspirations.
Both plans ultimately fell flat, but the opposing directions of the franchises made for a lopsided expectation from oddsmakers.
According to DraftKings Sports Betting, the Patriots were listed at -2000 on the moneyline with the Dolphins at +1200. See how far away from 100 both these numbers are? A sign that a blowout is highly expected.
This is an extreme example as it’s fairly rare to have these types of numbers in an NFL game, but here’s what the payouts were for bettors:
- $100 on the Patriots: $5 payout
- $100 on the Dolphins: $1,200 payout
Yes, if you would’ve bet $100 on the Patriots to beat the Dolphins in this game last season, you’re walking away with five bucks. Is that worth the risk of a potential upset? That’s up to the bettor.
For what it’s worth, the Patriots won this game, 43-0.
How to Bet the Moneyline on College Basketball
Most college basketball betting scenarios would fit in the description above with the NFL, but what about this scenario? Let’s use a fictitious example. We’re getting ready for the national title game between, oh, let’s say Gonzaga and Kansas.
This would be a great game and who knows who would’ve been favored. However, for the purpose of this post, let’s say the two were so evenly matched the oddsmakers had no idea who’s going to win and it could go either way.
Here’s what the moneyline numbers could look like:
- Gonzaga -110
- Kansas -110
This doesn’t happen often, but occasionally teams are so close together and evenly matched that both teams feature identical negative moneyline numbers.
Either winner in this scenario would lead to a $90.91 payout on a $100 moneyline bet.
How to Bet the Moneyline on UFC Events
An individual sport like UFC is made for moneyline betting. While traditional team sports will show several categories to potentially bet on with different options, UFC betting is mainly focused on the moneyline.
Who do you think will win the fight? If you are confident about it, bet on that fighter.
UFC betting offers additional betting options, but moneyline wagers are far and away the focal point.
Let’s go to UFC 249 in Jacksonville for our example with a fight between TonyFerguson, whose moneyline odds were listed at -200 according to DraftKings, and JustinGaethje and his +168 moneyline odds as the underdog.
Here’s how the payouts would’ve gone had you bet on either fighter.
- $100 on Tony Ferguson: $50 payout
- $100 on Justin Gaethje: $168 payout
As the underdog, Gaethje won the fight, so his bettors had a fun start to the return of live sports.
How to Bet the Moneyline on Soccer
The previous sports are easier to understand and fairly straight forward in regards to the moneyline, but soccer is a little bit different.
Most sports list the moneyline with two options. One team wins or the other team wins. However, in soccer there are three options to choose from on the moneyline because of the amount of draws that occur.
For our example, let’s go back to the 2018 World Cup between France and Croatia.
France entered the match as the favorite with a -110 moneyline number, while Croatia entered as the underdog with a +350 moneyline.
Bettors could decide a winner that way, but the third option of a draw at the end of regulation was listed at +230. Instead of picking a team, bettors could opt to bet on a draw if they believed the teams are that evenly matched.
Here’s a calculation of the 2018 World Cup payouts:
- $100 on France: $90.91 payout
- $100 on Croatia: $350 payout
- $100 on a draw: $230 payout
France wound up with a 4-2 victory as the favorite.
How to Bet Guides
Key Takeaways on the Moneyline
So what did we learn today?
- Moneyline bets consist of picking the team you think will win.
- Betting the moneyline favorite has a lesser payout.
- Betting the moneyline underdog has a larger payout.
- Soccer has three moneyline options to choose from.
Comments are closed.